If you're not first you're last...

I am steering far clear of predictions for this weekend as so far my judgments have been a tad off the pace but will give you a build up for how important this weekend is for the RWC and the possible permutations.

In all 4 Pools there are battles for who will take 2nd place. Originally the 2nd place spot (and place in the quarters) was taken for granted but we have had some interesting pool performances that has opened the door for contention.


Pool A: Tonga could make the biggest RWC upset in history and oust the incumbent William Webb Ellis holders out of the play offs. Both sides sit on 9 points from 3 games. The winner goes through. If it is a draw, Tonga go through, unless England score 4 tries and Tonga don't. Very interesting. And after watching how inept England has been and how Tonga can push you to the line (ahem, the boks) it could be one for the history books.

Pool B: This was meant to be set in stone but people are tipping big underdogs Fiji to upset Wales. It is a moot point as the winner plays the Boks in the quarters but both sit on 10 points so again winner takes all, and Wales take the draw. It is highly unlikely but Fiji can score tries, making it worth a watch.

Pool C: No one really cares but Scotland and Italy show down to take 2nd spot in the pool and the honour of playing Australia. These sides are 6nations wooden spoon rivals but Italy have gotten the upper hand of late, but Scotland have been stronger in the pools and the Azzurri will be without captain Bortolumi. Expect the Scottish to triumph or fall on their own broad sword.


Pool D: Oi halo. This is where it gets complicated. After 3 games Argentina are on 14, France are on 10 and Ireland are on 9. But France play Georgia so make that 15 after 4.
Hence; (1) if Argentina win, they go through 1 and France go through 2.
(2) if Argentina lose with a bonus point, they tie with France on 15 so it will go to points difference and France will be way ahead after clubbing Georgia, so F1 and A2.
(3) if Argentina lose sans bonus point and Ireland don't get one either. F1 and A2.
(4) if Argentina lose sans bp, but Ireland get one it goes to PD, but Argentina is already 64 ahead so Ireland would have to beat them by that to end. F1 and I2.

This is all premised on France winning with a bonus. Of course the repercussion is 1 plays the winner of Scotland/Italy (and will meet SA in the semis) whereas 2 plays the All Blacks in the quarters, and then Australia in the semis.

Hence, the tournament turns on this, the last game of the pool matches. Heavy stuff..!